More than a million heavy-duty autonomous trucks predicted to be on roads by 2044
Autonomous trucking market ramping up, with 1.25 million heavy-duty trucks projected to have some form of autonomous driving system by 2044
The number of large trucks deployed with autonomous systems is forecast to go from 13,000 in 2024 to more than 1.25 million in 2044 according to tech consultancy IDTechEx.
Out of these, they predict that almost half a million of these will have Level 4 capability, which represents the current highest level allowed legally on roads and that allows an onboard artificial intelligence to self-drive in most circumstances.
This growth across all levels of autonomy up to 2044 represents a 26% compound annual growth rate.
The coming labour crunch
The research notes that the drive for autonomous systems in the trucking sector is being spurred on by labour and demographic challenges in many major economies.
The American Trucking Association (ATA), estimates that there could be a deficit of 160,000 truckers in the US by 2028, up from 100,000 in 2023 and the situation is similarly problematic in Europe, China, South Korea and Japan.
Within the EU there is an estimated shortfall of 230,000 drivers, Japanese firms are struggling to hire truckers due to low wages and changing over time laws, and although China has an at least relatively young workforce in this area for now, it is set to be one of the fastest ageing countries in the world over the remainder of this century, which could create a massive gap numbering in the millions by 2028 due to the scale of its economy and it reliance on manufacturing.
Europe and China emerge as leaders
This is part of why IDTechEx highlights Europe and China as leading regions for autonomous truck developments and deployments, alongside their improving regulatory environments.
Although the report notes that the US is a key region, with extensive on-road testing programs in California, Texas, and Arizona, it also says that the lack of a federal framework “has led to a patchwork of state-level regulations,” that makes deployment, testing and commercial usage more problematic
In comparison, Europe has instituted “robust regulatory support”, and China has “national guidelines that provide clear standards for testing, production, and commercial deployment of autonomous vehicles,” alongside good supporting infrastructure, such as connected highways and charging stations for HGVs with electric drivetrains.
The research singles out Germany’s 2021 Autonomous Driving Act, which lays out the legal framework for autonomous driving, including provision for “Level 4 operations in specific areas without the need for human intervention”.
These measures have allowed extensive real-world testing in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen in China, and in Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands in the EU.
IdTechEx highlighted ongoing testing by Inceptio and DeepWay in China and Einride in Europe, the latter of which has already moved into limited Level 4 commercial operations along several fixed routes.
The report notes that a strategic decision by the Chinese government to become a leader in emerging vehicle technology should mean continued robust support, while the European Commission’s "Europe on the Move" agenda is building a single European framework for autonomous vehicles.
Just the beginning
Despite the advancements and the case for self-driving systems for heavy-duty trucks, IDTechEx said in a release that “full commercialization remains some distance away,” and the industry remains very much at an early stage.
Although the commercial case is becoming stronger due to high operational costs and low labour availability, the vehicles remain expensive and the industry’s claimed 15% reduction in costs over traditional manned trucks is probably overstated currently.
It highlighted the failures of TuSimple, Waymo, and Embark as examples of how the industry is still figuring out its value proposition and the challenges in getting these systems to market.
However, it does also point out that several of the emerging players are working with HGV Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) to retrofit the complex layers of cameras and sensors onto already existing truck chassis, an approach that IdTechEx says “not only alleviates the pressures associated with mass production but also allows these startups to leverage OEM technical support. The industry is thus evolving into a combined business model comprising OEMs, downstream logistics companies, and autonomous driving firms.”