Electrified vehicles set to make major inroads into commercial fleets over next decade
Forty-two percent of commercial fleet managers expect at least half of their vehicles to have electric drivetrains by 2030, while 7% of US long-haul trucks are forecast to be electric by 2033
Electric Vehicles (EVs) in commercial fleets are rapidly gaining momentum, with a survey of fleet managers by Frost & Sullivan and WEX finding that 80% expect at least a quarter of their fleet to be electrified by 2030, and 42% think that more than half of their vehicles will be EVs by that point.
Electrification is even expected to extend to long-haul, heavy-duty trucks over the next decade, albeit to a limited extent. Large, long-distance trucks are amongst the most challenging vehicles to electrify due to the weight of batteries needed to carry heavy loads long distances, consequently reducing potential load-carrying capacity. A separate report from Guidehouse Insights predicts that 7% of the trucks running long-haul routes in the US will run on electricity by 2033. This would mean over a hundred thousand vehicles in operation by that point, which would be a big boost from the just 500 sales of electric semitrucks made throughout the country in 2023.
Sustainability targets driving adoption
A large driver for this shift come from commitments to cutting emissions that operators have been set over the coming years.
The Frost & Sullivan survey, which covered fleet managers in Australia and New Zealand, Europe and the US, found that 70% of respondents see decarbonisation as key and 63% have specific low-carbon goals they will need to meet before or by 2030.
Fleet managers put reducing carbon emissions and meeting decarbonisation goals as their top two drivers for electrification of fleets.
For long-haul trucks William Sierzchula, senior research analyst with Guidehouse Insights, commented that "over the next 10 years, the primary driver for electric semi sales will be state-level zero emissions vehicle sales mandates such as California's Advanced Clean Trucks regulation.”
However, he also commented that "after 2035, sales are likely to be driven by reductions in battery costs and a more established charging infrastructure."
Infrastructure
Those evolutions in charging infrastructure are also rapidly underway and are creating opportunities, as well as challenges, for fleet electrification.
The dynamics favour much more rapid adoption for smaller commercial vehicles, as they can charge at local bases regularly. Conversely, limited availability and reliability of public charging infrastructure remains a problem, particularly on long routes.
Frost & Sullivan noted in its report that “with operational adjustments, 72% of routes could be immediately electrified without en-route charging. Even without any adjustments, 55% of routes could be electrified.”
With those adjustments, significant operational savings are possible, with the potential reduction up to 15% according to Deloitte.
However, for long-haul routes Guidehouse Insights pointed to the need to rely on public charging, which “means a high level of uncertainty around the number of corridor ports and their rated capacity.” They estimate that around “70% of long-haul charging will occur away from depots and at corridor ports along interstates and highways.”
They think that due to these dynamics the distribution of charging and favourable routes will lead to most deployments occurring in the US’ Midwest and West.