Navigating CSP markets in Northern Africa- Future Growth Potential and Key Challenges

North Africa may not have the same deep pockets as Saudi-Arabia, nor the long history of CSP production as the USA and Spain.

What it does have, however, is a strong demand for energy coupled with good solar resources, a huge hybrid potential and a growing track-record of existing plants in operation.

Currently three CSP projects are operational across North Africa, all of which are hybrid. There are at least another 12 CSP projects – both hybrid and stand-alone – in the pipeline for Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia (see Table 2). Arguably, the two countries receiving the most recent media and investor attention are Algeria and Morocco. Algerian utility SONELGAZ has planned 2475 MW of CSP by 2022, whilst the Moroccan Solar Plan is aiming at producing 2GW of solar energy by 2020.
Can these targets be realistically achieved? What are the main challenges for CSP in North Africa and how can these be overcome?
Existing Projects
There are currently three CSP hybrid plants in North Africa, each of which has a solar component of 20MW. They are located at Hassi R'Mel in Algeria, Ain-Beni-Mathar in Morocco and Kuraymat in Egypt and all use parabolic trough technology.

Table 1: Existing CSP Projects in Northern Africa

In addition to the three above, several other projects are in the pipeline. A full list of future CSP projects in Northern Africa, both hybrid and stand-alone, are listed below:
Table 2: Future CSP projects in Northern Africa

Source: CSP Today Global Tracker
Key Challenges:
More Expensive
The key challenges facing developers in the region is the fact that CSP technology remains significantly more expensive than alternatives. Logan Goldie-Scot, analyst on the Middle East and Africa for New Energy Finance at Bloomberg, explains that the average cost of a CSP stand-alone project based on projects that have secured financing since 2009 is $5.8/W, higher than the CAPEX costs for comparable PV and onshore wind projects over the same period - which necessitates a higher accompanying tariff. For example, the 160 MW Ouarzazate project in Morocco which has 3 hours of storage would not have been financially viable if not for additional assistance from the government. This is compounded by the fact that CSP is still a new technology, without a long operational track-record making it a risky investment for financers.
Lack of Local Expertise
Due to the fact that CSP is a relatively new technology with a short history in North Africa, finding local skilled individuals to develop and operate new CSP plants is a challenge that can be damaging in terms of increased costs associated with foreign expertise, as well as contrary to government local content requirements.
Strategies
Creating a competitive environment – government support
As mentioned above, the movement of international companies into the North African Market has resulted in potential increases in investor confidence in the region.
According to the 2012 CSP Today Market’s report, Morocco is one the most liberal markets in the MENA region: power plants with a capacity of below 50MW are allowed to be built by private enterprises without having to undergo a tendering process. Whilst Algeria has engaged reforms to liberalize the power sector as part of the country’s commitment toward the CSP Global Market Initiative (GMI) which aims at promoting CSP plants worldwide, Algeria has taken enacted laws and instated a regulatory framework that ought to support the local CSP industry. However, according to the 2012 CSP Today Markets Report, it is very important that the CSP-specific renewable energy policies and incentives be changed in order to make them attractive enough for local and international developers. Despite the existence of a feed-in tariff system for CSP in Algeria, there are no CSP plants being developed under this scheme, as the base price on which IPP´s get paid by injecting electricity to the grid is still significantly under CSP’s LCOE.
At present, there is no specific regulatory framework in Egypt to promote renewable energy. Nevertheless, the Egyptian Government has adopted a number of measures in order to enhance wind and solar energy. However, the current regulatory framework for private investments in large-scale renewable energy is achieved through competitive bidding system on land owned by the state. However, the Egyptian government has proposed a new law to govern the electricity sector. This new law, currently being discussed, constitutes the most recent legal initiative taken by the government to encourage renewable energy deployment and privately owned electricity generation. Through the embodiment of this new electricity draft law, the government clearly indicates its vision for renewable energy and its potential for national CSP industrial developments.
Hybrid potential –paving the way forward
Something which North Africa seems to have already picked up on is the relatively lower costs of hybrid CSP plants as opposed to stand-alone ones. As noted above, all operational CSP plants in North Africa are hybrid. Solar augmentation to existing power plants, as is the case in the Hassi R'Mel, Ain-Beni-Mathar and Kuraymat projects, allows CSP projects to bi-pass the high costs of turbines.
A significant aspect of hybridisation is that it will allow developers in North Africa to develop a track record for CSP projects in the local climate proving the technology’s operational effectiveness. This data can then be used in the planning of future stand-alone CSP projects.
Storage
Storage is a trump card for CSP in the global market. The storage capability of CSP will make it the most attractive renewable energy in Africa over the longer term, allowing it to provide electricity day and night to energy-starved markets. Projects already confirmed to be using storage inclide the Akarit CSP project, being developed by STEG which is set to have 4 hours of storage, whilst ACWA’s Ouarzazate I has factored in 3 hours of storage. It is likely that future CSP developments will follow suit.
Achievable goals?
The movement of international players into Northern Africa, such as ACWA, is certain to encourage investor security in the region. Indeed, as seen in Table 2, CSP seems to be growing rapidly in this area. Whilst the tabulated version of upcoming projects may be impressive, is it realistic?
North African countries have already received financial backing from the World Bank in terms of the MENA CSP Scale-Up Initiative. It brings together Egypt, Algeria, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia who aim to install about 1 GW of generation capacity and support associated transmission infrastructure in the Maghreb and Mashreq for domestic supply and exports. The aim is that CSP from these countries will eventually amount to about 15 per cent of the projected global pipeline and provide a two-fold increase in the current global installed CSP capacity.
According to Dr Khennas, consultant for the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, the Algerian utility Sonelgaz has planned 2475 MW CSP by 2022 with the 150 MW El Oued project being the first. Eight other sites have been identified for the remaining CSP projects. Technology has not been selected but Sonelgaz is investigating either tower or trough. At the time of going to press, the project, scheduled to come online in 2015, is still open for bids from developers.
In terms of which North African market is leading the way. Dr Khennas believes that Egypt, Algeria and Morocco are paving the way. Whilst Tunisia and Sudan have both outlined plans, Sudan’s renewable energy strategy has not been codified and it is dubious as to whether renewable energy will become a concrete plan in the near future. Tunisia has a codified strategy, but is experiencing political un-rest making it hard to predict definite developments.
Morocco, Dr Khennas believes, is likely to develop at a faster pace than Algeria primarily because it is more dependent on energy imports. Whilst he has no doubts that Algeria will complete its projects, Dr Khennas highlights that the process will be slower in Algeria. One reason for this is that Algeria, which has a relatively large local gas supply, is in the process of establishing a local manufacturing market. Cevital has already been formed as a glass manufacturer in Algeria making mirrors for parabolic troughs (Cevital is 100% privately funded but is part of the Desertec initiative).
With most future projects scheduled to come on-line within the next three to five years, the answer as to whether North Africa will meet its CSP production targets is drawing near, whether it be in terms of the large-scale rapid Moroccan initiative, or the more slow but steady Algerian approach CSP growth in the region