Trump expected to continue support for US nuclear power
Advanced nuclear technology is expected to continue to receive full support from the returning Trump administration as power demand rises.
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Donald Trump has slammed the Democrats for their “industry-killing, jobs-killing, pro-China and anti-American electricity regulations,” which has prompted concern for those pushing to cut emissions and introduce carbon-neutral technologies in the power generation business.
Nuclear power in the United States is largely a bipartisan issue, but it occupies a different space than other non-emitting technologies such as wind and solar in the mind of the incoming president.
“I think you'll see continued momentum (for nuclear), but for slightly different reasons than you have seen under the Biden administration,” says David Brown Director, Energy Transition Practice for Wood Mackenzie.
“Support for nuclear is bipartisan in the sense that, Republicans see it as an enabler for energy security and national security, while the Democrats see nuclear as enabling climate goals.”
Trump has pledged to modernize the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), work to keep existing power plants open, and invest in SMRs to support nuclear energy production.
Any pro-nuclear efforts would be a continuation of many of the reforms passed during his first presidency.
The previous Trump administration introduced key elements of ongoing efforts to modernize the sector, including the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP), the Nuclear Energy Innovation and Modernization Act (NEIMA) and the Nuclear Energy Innovation Capabilities Act (NEICA).
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Regulating advanced nuclear
The NRC has faced criticism that is unprepared for new nuclear technology that is distinct from the current generation. However, the regulator has made moves toward a more flexible, streamlined, performance-based approach.
The changes are already being seen, with safety evaluations on Kairos’ Hermes 2 advanced test facility completed months ahead of schedule.
The new administration is likely to push the regulator to take this approach a step further, especially as demand rises from AI and data centers.
“To enable sufficient new generation to be built to supply data center needs, the Trump administration likely must step in to help make the process more efficient, including expediting permitting, transmission build, and interconnection, which are some of the primary bottlenecks,” says Derek Bentley, Partner and Head of Energy Transition at Solomon Partners.
It remains uncertain to what extent pro-deregulation Republicans will challenge the NRC directly, however.
A ‘black swan’ event on the back of regulatory shortcuts would be disastrous for the industry and would end any development for the foreseeable future.
Full-throated support for technological improvements in safety is more likely.
“I don't anticipate regulation will decrease in the short term, but I do think it will be offset by technology advancements,” says Martin Stansbury U.S. Power, Utilities & Renewables Risk & Financial Advisory Leader for Deloitte.
Potential advanced nuclear FOAK to NOAK overnight capital costs, $/kW
Source: Department of Energy's Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Advanced Nuclear
Rising interest in nuclear generation by deep-pocketed tech companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google will be an extra drive to early deployment and lower costs.
“What you're seeing is more private, big tech companies, and private equity, paying a premium to offset the cost. The combination of market demand and a little bit of hedging on that growth is an ideal environment for financing and addresses some of the concerns posed by nuclear,” says Stansbury.
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Big tech push
Power generation growth in the United States has been low in recent decades, but electrification of the transport sector and cloud computing, which is expected to rise to 11%-12% of domestic demand in 2030 from just 3%-4% now, has prompted some positive demand signals.
“With private sector demands for power evolving so quickly, how that interfaces with the policy environment is going to be a really interesting question,” says Matt Crozat Executive Director, Strategy and Policy Development at Nuclear Energy Innovation (NEI).
Expected demand rises in strategically vital industries will likely drive nuclear power generation in the United States, regardless of the White House occupant, says Crozat.
“Right now, there's a lot of companies trying to move very quickly, and I don't know that they're going to change plans based on elections,” he says.
The presence of technology entrepreneurs, or so-called disruptors, like Elon Musk close to the Oval Office will also help support the deployment of new nuclear, both in the United States and for exports, potentially in some unexpected ways.
“What we need is a new approach to nuclear energy, where we go back to the drawing board on how we built these things and how we design safety inherently into the system, and focus on what truly matters, keep the stuff that makes sense, and throw everything else away,” says Greg Piefer Founder & CEO of SHINE Technologies.
Here’s our exclusive report on how U.S. developers are funding and licensing the first advanced reactors.
Feeding the base
While Trump has vowed to roll back environmental- and nuclear-friendly proposals such as the multi-billion-dollar Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), he is expected to do so precisely and carefully rather than via drastic, across the board cuts since much of the cash Joe Biden has allocated through the Act has been directed toward Republican-leaning states.
“The money's already been appropriated, so the administration could pull some of it back, but there's going to be a lot of opposition,” says Paul DeCotis, Senior Partner covering energy and utilities at digital services firm West Monroe.
The nuclear industry is ripe for competition, says DeCotis, which will drive it forward.
“Once you take the genie out of the box with competition, it's hard to put it back in, and I think there's a lot of things favoring SMRs and hydrogen, and there's going to be some technological breakthroughs that are going to make all the difference.”
By Paul Day