U.S. refiners fear a California planned ban on gasoline, diesel vehicles to start in 2035 may spread to 20 states

The association of American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) issued on May 24 a statement to show concern that as many as 20 states within the United States may follow California and enact their own bans on gasoline and diesel vehicles starting in 2035 if the Environmental Protection Agency approves the Californian request for the ban on vehicles powered by those conventional motor fuels.

Refinery and petrochemical complex of Port Arthur, Texas, at night. Image courtesy of 12019, Pixabay

The president and CEO of the AFPM, Chet Thompson, said that if a California planned ban is approved by U.S. federal regulators, it would affect 40% of the U.S. population and an equal share of the country´s auto market. The EPA must oppose California´s plans to ban sales of new conventional gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles within 12 years or else other states may follow, according to a statement released on May 24, 2023.

Only a small fraction of vehicles in the U.S. are electricity-powered. According to estimates separately released in early May by Cox Automotive, a group that publishes monthly data on the U.S. auto industry, the annual rate of new vehicle sales in the U.S. in April, according to the latest figures available, may have ranged between 15 .1 million and 15.9 million new vehicles sold. But only a small fraction of all vehicles sold in the U.S. are EVs.

According to information attributed to Knoema.com, California is the top region by car sales in the United States of America. As of 2022, car sales in California was $143 billion or 12% of national sales, it said.

Federal permission requested

According to the Association of Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, the State of California “has officially submitted its petition to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) seeking federal permission to ban sales of new traditional gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2035.”

“California has officially asked the (U.S. President Joe) Biden administration for permission to ban the sale of new gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2035, an unprecedented move that will deny millions of Americans the ability to choose for themselves the types of cars or trucks they want to drive,” the AFPM said.

“The decision is entirely up to President Biden, and if he grants this request, “it will set the stage for California’s ban to become law in nearly 20 states, covering 40% of the U.S. population and auto market,” it said.

The administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency since March 2021 is Michael Regan. On December 2020 members of the Biden transition team told press officials Biden was going to nominate Regan for the post.  

Regan, the first black person to lead the agency,  is responsible for Biden's commitments during the campaign to fight climate change and promote green energy innovations, according to a The New York Times report from Dec. 17, 2020.

What is California's CARB and the ACCII regulation

In 2022 the California Air Resources Board, also known as CARB, adopted a regulation called Advanced Clean Cars II that requires 35% of light-duty vehicles to qualify as “zero emission” by 2026 and 100% by 2035, the AFPM reported on March 6.

“Essentially, this amounts to a ban on new sales of traditional gasoline and diesel-powered cars and trucks,” the AFPM said at the time.

However, to implement the policy, California needs authorization in the form of a Clean Air Act waiver from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 

Why would a California ban affect other states?

“When, and if, California is given an EPA waiver to set its own vehicle and emissions policies, other states are allowed to adopt those same policies too. In fact, 15 states already follow California’s Zero Emission Vehicle mandate, including four that automatically pass any California vehicle policies for which the EPA grants a waiver. Two more states follow California’s Low Emissions Vehicle standards,” the AFPM said.

“Altogether, these states and the District of Columbia account for 40% of the U.S. population. If EPA authorizes California to move forward with an outright ban on gasoline and diesel vehicle sales, it’s possible each of those states and others will enact the same ban,” the association said.

“Devastating” impacts forecasted

According to the association of U.S. refiners and petrochemical manufacturers, or AFPM, the planned ban would have devastating impacts “on consumers, U.S. energy security and the manufacturing economy.”

“Consumers will face higher and inequitable costs for vehicles and electricity if the option to purchase gasoline and diesel cars and trucks is taken away,” the American association of refiners and petrochemical manufactures said.

Mandating “zero emission” and electric power train vehicles will also massively increase demand for minerals, mineral refining and batteries materials with their supply chains dominated by China and where the United States is a very minor player, the U.S. refiners and petrochemical manufacturers said.

“As the top liquid fuel producer in the world and with rich petroleum resources, the United States has built liquid fuel security. A vehicle sales ban would trade that security for energy and mineral dependence on countries,” it added.

U.S. refiners and the Biden administration

“The Biden administration is trying to convince the public it’s not out to ban gas stoves or vehicles. But if they give California the green light, there will be no escaping that label or its legacy of restriction,” the AFPM said in its statement.

U.S. refiners and President Biden´s government held talks in 2022 over gasoline prices and refinery profitability. Later in the year refiners said they saw their export operations threatened.

By Renzo Pipoli